Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 10:01 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before Dec 1, 2026 8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète4 sept. 26, 11:39 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
To satisfy the Payout Criterion, Anthropic must release to the public a model named "Mythos." Both conditions must be met by the same model:
- The model must be named "Mythos" (e.g., "Claude Mythos 5").
- A model that Anthropic describes as "Mythos-class" or as belonging to the Mythos tier, but that carries a different name (e.g., "Claude Fable 5"), does not satisfy the Payout Criterion, even if Anthropic states it is the same underlying model with modified safety features.
- Public release.
- A release restricted to a closed beta or to a limited set of approved or trusted organizations does not constitute a release to the public.
- A release available to the general public, including a release limited to a paid subscription tier, does constitute a release to the public.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — When will Anthropic release Mythos? · Before Jan 1, 2027 13%