Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 36.2%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète25 avr. 26, 15:13 UTC7 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be President on Election Day 2028? (Add answers.)
Manifold Markets[Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25)
Manifold MarketsWho will do an apparent Nazi salute during Trump's second term? (add answers)
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketArgentina presidential election winner?
KalshiRègles
The market resolves to whichever third party receives the most electoral votes, and if that is a tie, whichever party receives highest percentage of the popular vote in the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- Results will be determined by official FEC data and major news outlets reporting final vote tallies.
- If a party changes its name but stays basically the same party, it will be considered the same party.
- If someone runs as an Independent, they can be added to this list.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What 3rd Party will preform best in the 2028 presidential election [Add Answers] ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 36% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What 3rd Party will preform best in the 2028 presidential election [Add Answers] sera-t-il résolu ?
- What 3rd Party will preform best in the 2028 presidential election [Add Answers] doit être résolu le 7 novembre 2028.
- Comment What 3rd Party will preform best in the 2028 presidential election [Add Answers] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The market resolves to whichever third party receives the most electoral votes, and if that is a tie, whichever party receives highest percentage of the popular vote in the 2028 U.S. presidential election.