Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète30 janv. 23, 19:24 UTC1 janv. 00, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves to YES if I become extremely confident that Covid-19 was intentionally manufactored in a lab and intentionally released, and to NO if I become extremely confident that it wasn't.
- This won't happen based on a single article or press release or youtube video; it will only happen once there is overwhelming evidence in one direction, coming from a broad range of people who have no conflict of interest.
- (Basically, you can rest assured I'm not going to resolve this market until most traders agree I should.)
- See @/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory for the more general question of whether it came from a lab at all, including accidental leaks.
