Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 12 octobre 2026.

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570?

Monthly16j

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 78%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes

22 sept. 26, 14:32 UTC28 oct. 26, 12:00 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

YES if the Budget announces a personal allowance above £12,570 taking effect on or before 6 April 2028.

Advisers split on this: S&W rated it moderate and BDO rated it low.
Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.