Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 68.7%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète29 nov. 25, 14:57 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a Batman vs Deadpool movie released by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill The Batman: Part II be delayed?
PolymarketRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiWill the re-release of Avenger Endgame Surpass the box office of Supergirl?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
PolymarketWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2030, a high‑budget, theatrically released Batman movie explicitly portraying Bruce Wayne/Batman as gay will be released before January 1st 2040 (or has already been released).
- What counts as “strong evidence”?
- Strong evidence (before 2030) includes any of the following:
- The movie is actually released and meets all the criteria below.
- Principal photography has begun on a movie clearly marketed as a major Batman film, with reputable trade outlets and/or official studio materials explicitly stating that this version of Bruce Wayne/Batman is gay/queer and the film is intended for a wide, blockbuster‑scale release.
- A widely covered studio announcement (e.g. press release, investor presentation, or major‑trade exclusive plus follow‑up confirmation) describes a big‑budget Batman movie with an openly gay/queer Bruce Wayne and gives a planned release date before 2040, with no credible subsequent reports that the queer aspect has been removed.
Marchés ouverts
Box Office / StreamingKALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 50+3.0pt99%
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 55+4.0pt94%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 314,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 33,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 152%
- Crew Girl: Season 135%
- NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs. Rams30%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 586,3 €
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 76,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 455,5 €
KALSHIDisney+ App Downloads in September
- Above 11945%
- Above 123+2.0pt37%
- Above 12929%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7,1 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 8M+95%
- 6M+58%
- 12M+55%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,1 €
KALSHIParamount+ App Downloads in September
- Above 7957%
- Above 82-1.0pt51%
- Above 8351%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- Will SHREK 5 be delayed?
- How many people will attend Broadway shows during the 2026–27 season?
- Who will be the next Bond girl?
- What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026?
- Will The Batman: Part II be delayed?
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?
- Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?
- Will "Oasis: Don’t Look Back In Anger" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?
- Will The Odyssey have a higher domestic PTA than Spider-Man on every remaining Tuesday in September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2039.
- Comment Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2030, a high‑budget, theatrically released Batman movie explicitly portraying Bruce Wayne/Batman as gay will be released before January 1st 2040 (or has already been released).