Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleWet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin 15.6%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète25 janv. 26, 02:13 UTC2 nov. 28, 01:02 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin
Manifold MarketsTipping point state vote margin for Dem Senate majority in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
Manifold MarketsHow will AI voting advice rates compare to the Senate tipping point margin in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich 2026 race will be the tipping point for Senate control?
PredictItPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRègles
This market asks two questions: What the Republican/Democrat margin of victory will be in the tipping point state for the 2028 US POTUS election, and whether the weather will be wet in the state on election day.
- The criteria for what counts as rainy weather will be:
- Look at the top 5 cities in the state by population
- Check if it precipitated in those cities according to the citywide weather icon for election day on Weather Underground
- Is the answer is "yes" for most of the people in those cities?
