Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 94.5%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard19 oct. 23, 06:19 UTC2 janv. 00, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will humans create a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill someone fall into a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
Manifold MarketsDo we live inside a black hole?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRègles
Resolves once I have >99% confidence in the correct answer.
- This could occur because a particle collider created one, because all electrons are black holes, because someone trained a superintelligence on XKCD, or any other reason.
- Refers to the time of resolution, not market creation.