Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 56%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète2 mars 25, 01:06 UTC1 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?
Manifold MarketsDeepSeek IPO before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill DeepSeek v5 release before 2028
Manifold MarketsAny leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a US spy was working at Deepseek at any point in the period 2025-2035.
- If, by January 1st 2100, there is no evidence for this, then this question resolves as NO.
- If there is weak evidence, but no strong evidence, then this question resolves as N/A. The NO and N/A resolutions cannot occur before January 1st 2100.