In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?
One-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 57.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
18 déc. 22, 20:22 UTC18 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Conjecture is an alignment firm founded by Conor Leahy, also founder(?) of Eleuther AI.
- They have officially short (5 year) timelines until doom, mostly work on interpretability, generation of new alignment research agendas via their work in Refine and SERI MATS, and convincing ML researchers and their labs that alignment is an important hard problem.
- Some have expressed worry that their short timelines and high probability of doom will lead them toward advocating for more risky strategies, making us worse off in >5 year timeline worlds.
- This market is, of course, conditional on Conjecture being wrong that we'll all die in 5 years.
- I'd like to know how much damage they do in that world.