If the Supreme Court revisits Obergefell by 2029, who will vote against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitiqueÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleClarence Thomas 97.9%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète1 avr. 25, 03:38 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES for any justice who votes against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, and NO for any justice who votes for a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- Resolves N/A for any justice not on the Court during the case, or who recuses themselves.
- Applies only to the first case revisiting the constitutional right to same-sex marriage by the end of the current presidential term (January 20, 2029), and resolves N/A if no such case occurs.
- Justices' opinions on other related questions, such as whether the reasoning of Obergefell was correct, whether Congress has the right to legislate on same-sex marriage, whether private citizens can discriminate against same-sex couples, etc. are irrelevant.
- This resolves only based on how justices vote on the question of whether there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- CLARIFICATION, August 11, 2025: If a justice votes to preserve the precedent that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, they resolve NO, even if it is only because of stare decisis.
