Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Manifold gives me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57.3% au 28 octobre 2026.

If Manifold gives me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 57.3%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 2 heures

Obsolète

22 oct. 23, 21:35 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Specifcally, the comparison is MAU's at the time of the grant compared to MAU's exactly 1 year later.

I made the title about me because I want this to reflect "people with opinions similar to mine about the correct growth strategy for Manifold to take".
In practice I'd be asking for advice from several other users and it'd be more of a grassroots activity than a solo one.
If Manifold provides such a grant to a group of users that includes me, I'll count that as satisfying the condition.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/if-manifold-does-not-give-me-a-1000)