Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper) ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 59.1% au 27 octobre 2026.

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 59.1%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 15 heures

Obsolète

2 déc. 25, 19:02 UTC30 déc. 35, 18:53 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough.

The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
[link preview]We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months.
If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES.
In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.