Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: He will stay in until the Republican primary but lose it. (94.5%)
Résolu: 12 août 2026, 03:53
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Prévision communautaire actuelleHe will stay in until the Republican primary but lose it. 94.5%+50.4ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+72.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 jours
Obsolète13 déc. 25, 18:2112 août 26, 3:53
Chronologie des Probabilités
He will drop out before the Republican endorsement convention.0.3%
He will drop out after the Republican endorsement convention but before the primary.0.9%
He will stay in until the Republican primary but lose it.94.5%
He will win the Republican primary but drop out before the general election.0.4%
He will be nominated winning the Republican primary but lose the general election.3.1%
He will remain in the race through all stages and win the general election.0.2%
Other0.7%
94.5%
3.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Règles
#### Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with primary elections on August 11, 2026.
- Precinct caucuses are scheduled for February 3, 2026, and the Republican endorsement convention is expected in May, with endorsements occurring in March and early April.
- This market resolves based on the furthest stage Lindell's campaign reaches before ending:
- Drops out before endorsement convention: Campaign ends before or during the February-May convention process
- Drops out after endorsement convention but before primary: Campaign ends after the May convention but before August 11 primary
