Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
>= 100 95%En tête parmi 7 options
>= 100 95%Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète2 juin 24, 20:04 UTC2 juil. 27, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
Manifold MarketsWill 2,500+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill 10,000+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiRègles
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme