Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.7%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète20 sept. 25, 23:36 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?
Manifold MarketsBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketFederal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027?
Manifold MarketsShould we hire you? [Job-finding market]
Manifold MarketsWill California’s billionaire tax take effect?
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
https://www.moreno.senate.gov/press-releases/new-moreno-bill-would-crack-down-on-outsourcing-fund-american-workers/
- The HIRE Act:
- Creates a 25% tax on outsourcing payments, defined as any money paid by a U.S. company or taxpayer to a foreign person whose work benefits consumers in the United States.
- Creates a “Domestic Workforce Fund” to collect any money raised from the outsourcing tax, which is used to support apprenticeships and workforce development programs.
- Prohibits companies from deducting any outsourcing payments.
- Something nearly equal that gets approved will also resolve this as YES, even if it's not proposed by the same person or is known by the same name.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
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- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour HIRE Act passes by 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand HIRE Act passes by 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- HIRE Act passes by 2026 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment HIRE Act passes by 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://www.moreno.senate.gov/press-releases/new-moreno-bill-would-crack-down-on-outsourcing-fund-american-workers/