Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Forward Party runs a US presidential candidate in 2028? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 24 octobre 2026.

Quand Forward Party runs a US presidential candidate in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?

Forward Party runs a US presidential candidate in 2028? doit être résolu le 8 novembre 2028.

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 50%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 heure

En retard

5 janv. 26, 22:33 UTC8 nov. 28, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Inspired by the more specific market:

https://manifold.markets/Harlan/will-andrew-yang-run-for-president-hQqURlRzp0
Resolves YES if the Forward Party runs a presidential candidate in the 2028 US election.
If the party officially supports a candidate as "theirs", this will count for YES resolution even if that candidate does not qualify for the ballot in any US states.
If a candidate reaches the ballot for both the Forward Party and another party, that also counts as YES.
If the Forward Party ceases to exist, that will count as NO — unless, in my judgment, a new entity formed out of the Forward Party is "basically the same thing", in which case I'll use my best judgment (likely a partial resolution).