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Données au 26 oct. 2026, 03:09 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète20 nov. 25, 08:42 UTC31 déc. 31, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWill a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2032, there exists at least one new AI accelerator chip series for which the elapsed time between (a) the date a first fully working chip from that series exists in silicon and (b) the date on which at least 1 gigawatt (1 GW) of nameplate power capacity from that series is installed in operational compute clusters worldwide is 100 days or fewer.
- Core definitions
- AI accelerator chip series (“series”)
- A “series” is a family of data‑center‑class AI accelerators (GPUs, ASICs, wafer‑scale engines, multi‑die modules, etc.) from a single vendor that share the same underlying microarchitecture and base die design, even if they come in multiple SKUs.
- Variants that differ only in memory size, binning, cooling, form factor, or minor packaging changes (e.g. PCIe vs SXM; 80GB vs 144GB; air vs liquid cooled) are treated as the same series.
- A major architectural or die change (e.g. “Hopper” → “Blackwell”, “TPU v4” → “TPU v5”, “Ascend 910C” → “Ascend 910D” if based on a substantially new design) counts as a new series with its own clock.
