Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 53.5%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète12 août 26, 16:29 UTC20 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Trump pardons in 2026
FutuurWill Barron Trump ever be elected President?
Manifold MarketsWill Barron Trump and Ivanka Trump be President?
Manifold MarketsWill Barron Trump graduate from NYU on time or earlier?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiRègles
Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumppardons/who-will-trump-pardon/kxtrumppardons-29jan21
- If Barron Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from White House and New York Times.
- (Identical market to: source market)
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Donald Trump pardons Barron Trump? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Donald Trump pardons Barron Trump? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Donald Trump pardons Barron Trump? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Donald Trump pardons Barron Trump? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumppardons/who-will-trump-pardon/kxtrumppardons-29jan21