Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 59.8% au 27 octobre 2026.

Quand Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography? sera-t-il résolu ?

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2032.

CryptoOne-Off5a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 59.8%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes

5 août 22, 23:19 UTC1 janv. 32, 06:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Did the NSA interfere with the NIST PQC standardization process with the intent of making the resulting cryptosystem more susceptible to attack?

This market resolves to MKT shortly after close---early January 2032.
There will be no early resolution.
(Otherwise there would be too strong of a bias towards YES.)
I may resolve the market by hand, rather than to MKT, if there's evidence that the market isn't functioning correctly.
For instance, if overwhelming evidence is clearly being ignored, if the market is far from the consensus of crypto professionals, etc. The purpose of this disclaimer is to make sure the Keynesian beauty contest stays on track.