Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 61.2%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète10 janv. 24, 21:01 UTC16 nov. 28, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump buying Greenland, how much will the US pay?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRègles
If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.
- Therefore, the probability here should not necessarily be the same as @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-republican-be-elected-presid
- No matter who wins the 2024 election, the 2028 election is likely to have no incumbent, since either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be prevented from running for reelection by term limits.
- Therefore, the difference between this market and the unconditional version can be compared to the difference between @/PlasmaBallin/conditional-on-a-biden-being-electe and @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-democrat-be-elected-presiden, since neither one is influenced by an incumbency advantage or disadvantage - both are purely measures of whether a certain candidate's term will strengthen or weaken the chances of their party's next nominee.
Marchés ouverts
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? doit être résolu le 16 novembre 2028.
- Comment Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.