By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?
Matières premièresOne-OffPolitiqueÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62.2%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète9 juin 25, 15:15 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves YES if by 31 Dec 2028 at least one of the following is true:
- Federal legislation is formally introduced in Congress that proposes a nationwide, unconditional UBC-style programme (guaranteed in-kind access to ≥2 essentials such as food staples, basic utilities/housing, broadband, or public transport) as a primary alternative or successor to a cash UBI.
- A declared U.S. presidential candidate (or sitting president) publishes an official platform explicitly advocating a UBC-style guarantee in place of or in clear preference to cash UBI.
- A major U.S. think-tank or philanthropic foundation (e.g., Brookings, AEI, Roosevelt Inst., Gates Foundation) releases a flagship report calling for UBC over UBI and ≥5 national outlets (NYT, WaPo, WSJ, Reuters, AP, etc.) cover it within 60 days, describing it as a new direction beyond cash UBI.
- NO = the pivot doesn’t materialize. • None of the above occur by 31 Dec 2028. • State-level pilots, niche academic papers, or op-eds alone are insufficient. • If multiple criteria partly hit but lack nationwide relevance, I’ll consult Manifold mods for a ruling.
- Context: UBI (cash transfers) has dominated basic-income talk in the U.S. since 2016.
