Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 87%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète15 nov. 25, 08:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the number of Tornado reports exceed 40 in the US during October 2026?
ForecastExWill the number of Tornado reports exceed 50 in the US during October 2026?
ForecastExWhere will it rain on Oct 5, 2026?
KalshiWhat will Bernie say during his Fighting Oligarchy rally?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 5, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Chengdu on October 5?
PolymarketRègles
Will the total number of confirmed tornadoes in the United States during 2026 exceed 1,400?
- Context: The U.S. averages approximately 1,200-1,333 tornadoes annually.
- In 2024, there were 1,855 tornadoes (second-highest on record), and 2025 is tracking at 1,283 tornadoes as of October.
- This market resolves based on the final official tornado count from NOAA's National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.
- Resolution: This market resolves YES if the final 2026 tornado count published by NOAA/SPC exceeds 1,400.
- Resolves NO if the count is 1,400 or below.