KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
At least 2.5°C 69.1%En tête parmi 6 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
2,2 k €
Faible liquiditéDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
2 juil. 26, 23:005 avr. 27, 14:00
Tendances
Règles
If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
- The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary).
- For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value.
- The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period.
- However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 0.5 and 0.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 1, 2026?
- 76° to 77°+11.0pt56.2%
- 75° or below+14.0pt33.3%
- 78° to 79°-21.0pt6.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 216,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 212 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 1, 2026?
- New York City+24.0pt99%
- Newark+26.0pt99%
- Boston+12.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 2?
- 28°C+39.0pt47.2%
- 29°C+1.5pt26.4%
- 30°C-17.0pt21.7%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
- Fay-4.0pt24.8%
- Edouard-4.0pt19.5%
- Gonzalo+3.0pt17.7%
+18 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 1, 2026?
- 82° or below+39.0pt85.7%
- 83° to 84°-18.0pt10.5%
- 85° to 86°-13.0pt0.9%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHILowest temperature in Miami on Sep 1, 2026?
- 77° to 78°67.3%
- 79° to 80°-8.0pt24%
- 75° to 76°-7.0pt5.8%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 37,4 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season? ?
- Kalshi cote At least 2.5°C à 69% au 1 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season? doit être résolu le 5 avril 2027.
- Comment What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.