What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
3.0 pts (24h)MétéoOne-Off5mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
At least 2.5°C · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
At least 2.5°C 82.5%En tête parmi 6 options
At least 2.5°C 82.5%Qualité du marché
44 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
196,4 €
Intérêt ouvert
5,7 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
— / —
At least 2.5°CÉcart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 minutes
2 juil. 26, 23:00 UTC5 avr. 27, 14:00 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · At least 2.5°C
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
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KalshiRègles
If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
- The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
Règles de chaque résultat
- At least 2.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2.0°C to 2.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.0°C to 1.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.0 and 1.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.5°C to 1.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.5 and 1.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 0.5°C to 0.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 0.5 and 0.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 0.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is below 0.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.