KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Reform UK 39.8%-5.0ptEn tête parmi 15 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Reform UK 39.8%-5.0ptQualité du marché
56 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
76,4 €
Intérêt ouvert
20,3 k €
Intérêt ouvert moyenÉcart
5.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
21 sept. 26, 18:30 UTC8 oct. 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Holborn and St Pancras by-election winner?
KalshiHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiHolborn and St Pancras by-election: 2nd place
KalshiHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Green Party vote percent
KalshiHolborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place
PolymarketHolborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory
PolymarketRègles
If the certified results place Reform UK in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:London Borough of Camden
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage In case of an exact tie for third place, markets resolve to $1/(number of tied entities), rounded down. A write-in candidate achieving the specified rank resolves all named candidate or party markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" market exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution follows the London Borough of Camden's final certified result, not preliminary election-night results. If an unlisted party or unlisted independent candidate finishes third, every listed market resolves NO. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond Oct 8, 2026, or no certified results are available by expiration, all markets resolve NO.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Reform UK
- If the certified results place Reform UK in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Conservative Party
- If the certified results place Conservative Party in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Liberal Democrats
- If the certified results place Liberal Democrats in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Green Party
- If the certified results place Green Party in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Workers Party
- If the certified results place Workers Party in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour Party
- If the certified results place Labour Party in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Official Monster Raving Loony Party
- If the certified results place Official Monster Raving Loony Party in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tom Darwood
- If the certified results place Tom Darwood in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Climate Party
- If the certified results place Climate Party in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Restore Britain
- If the certified results place Restore Britain in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Rejoin EU
- If the certified results place Rejoin EU in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- UK VOICE safer and stronger UK
- If the certified results place UK VOICE safer and stronger UK in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Communist League
- If the certified results place Communist League in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Christian Peoples Alliance
- If the certified results place Christian Peoples Alliance in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- UKIP - NO to Illegal Immigration
- If the certified results place UKIP - NO to Illegal Immigration in 3rd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.