KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 11 nov. 2026, 18:32 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Milieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%En tête parmi 3 options
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%Qualité du marché
35 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Intérêt ouvert
1,3 k $US
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
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Before Jan 1, 2028Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 45 minutes
En retard17 sept. 26, 00:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jan 1, 2028
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf an AI incident kills 100+ before 2030, will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals within 18 months?
Manifold MarketsIf the US does not enact binding pre-deployment evals before 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ by 2036?
Manifold MarketsIf ≥8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiHow many reconciliation bills will become law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiRègles
If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require external reporting of serious incidents or dangerous near misses involving AI models or systems. This includes events causing or threatening serious physical, economic, environmental, privacy, or security harm, as well as significant loss of control or compromise of model security. The law's reporting trigger or definitions must identify serious, critical, material, significant, or catastrophic incidents, or set a harm or risk threshold excluding routine low-impact events. A broader reporting duty qualifies if it includes such a defined category. Confidential reports to an authority or designated external recipient and public disclosure both qualify. Internal reporting alone, voluntary programs, routine errors, and capability or risk assessments without an incident or dangerous near miss do not qualify. A general cybersecurity reporting law without an AI-specific reporting duty does not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.