PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 0%
Marktqualitat
73 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
225.811,1 €
Liquidität
323.081,4 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
0.3% / 0.4%
Spread
33.3%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
-18.1%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
25. Juni 26, 18:267. Juli 26, 23:59
Trends
0%
100%
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes0%
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket]
2T
4.8%
95.2%
Community-Prognose40 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen8730,5 €
24h-Volumen368,8 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Große Trades
$2.5k99.2%Nokukasistakengestern
$23.8k99.0%No0x0c0e…434evorgestern
$9.5k98.0%No0x9631…89a1vor 3 Tagen
$4.5k95.0%Nomr.ozivor 4 Tagen
Verwandte Märkte
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
1,3 Mio. €July 31: 68%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
276.958,4 €Ja: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
242.641,5 €Before Jul 1, 2026: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
187.837,5 €Benjamin Netanyahu: 39%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Continent to Win the Men's World Cup
112.791,7 €Europe: 66%KALSHI
KALSHI
US-Iran nuclear deal?
89.814,9 €Before September: 18%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% NoBlockchain.News
Gulf officials weigh US-backed Lebanon–Israel framework as Polymarket Yes slipsBlockchain.News
Israeli strike raises tensions as Polymarket cuts Qatar talks odds to 43.5%Blockchain.News
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%Blockchain.News
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%Blockchain.NewsRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.