Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Thorsten Frei 98%+0.5%Führend unter 34 Optionen
Marktqualitat
91 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
735,1 €
Liquidität
77.466,4 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
97.5% / 98.5%
Spread
1.0%
Enger Spread7d-Änderung
+56.0%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Minuten
18. Juli 26, 21:0829. Juli 26, 23:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Thorsten Frei98%
Volumentrend
$83620. Juli7T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
122.455,6 €United Russia (ER): 56%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Next French Presidential Election
79.084,5 €Marine Le Pen: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Clacton by-election: 2nd place
29.661,2 €Count Binface: 82%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Clacton By-Election - Winner
3084,3 €Conservative: 0.01%SMARKETS
SMARKETS
Will Count BinFace win the Clacton-by-election?
3003,7 €Ja: 6.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
594,1 €Ja: 15.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn diesen Themen aktiv
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On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).
- This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.
- The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.
- Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.
- If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.