Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Higher Strikes for Tisza)

2.0% (24h)5T

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Marktqualitat 63 • Mittlere QualitatDunner Markt

Alarme

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Entscheidungsunterstützung

Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit

Tisza <9% 37%

Marktqualitat

63 / 100

Mittlere Qualitat

Geld / Brief

36.0% / 38.0%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 24 Minuten

Zuletzt aktualisiert: 6. Apr., 0:06

Auflosung

12.04.2026, 00:00

24h-Volumen

636 €

Liquidität

65.200,2 €

Spread

5.6%

Mittlerer Spread

7d-Änderung

Mittlere LiquiditatDunner MarktHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Start 31.03.2026, 20:04Ende 12.04.2026, 00:00

Trends

Keine Diagrammdaten verfügbar.

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Tisza <9%

-2.0%37%

Other

-21%

Tisza 9-12%

+1.0%13%

Tisza 15-18%

+0.5%12%

Tisza 18%+

+0.5%11%

Tisza 12-15%

-10%

Regeln

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

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