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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

2.5% (24h)One-OffPolitikLatin America6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 24%+0.0%
Marktqualitat

80 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

1170,4 €

Liquidität

31.747,8 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

23.0% / 24.0%

Spread

4.3%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

+3.0%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

11. März 26, 0:0031. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes24%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba.
  • This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC.
  • A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
  • Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice.

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba.
  • This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC.
  • A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
  • Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice.