Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 56% (Stand: 9. August 2026).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes (43.7%)

Entschieden: 08.08.2026, 13:42

Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung

CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 56.3%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 12 Tagen

Veraltet

14. Juli 26, 13:077. Aug. 26, 21:00

Trends

Nein

56.3%

43.7%

Regeln

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes (43.7%)

Entschieden: 08.08.2026, 13:42

Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung

CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 56.3%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 12 Tagen

Veraltet

14. Juli 26, 13:077. Aug. 26, 21:00

Trends

Nein

56.3%

43.7%

Regeln

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Häufige Fragen

Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 56% (Stand: 9. August 2026).
Wann wird Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) entschieden?: Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) soll am 7. August 2026 entschieden werden.
Wie wird Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Häufige Fragen

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