Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 95%
Prognostiker
121
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet23. Okt. 23, 01:36 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiSpotify Premium Family Plan price increase this year?
KalshiSpotify Premium Duo Plan price increase this year?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.
- The core plan is a little differerent from the direction Manifold has gone, and seems like it could go very well or completely fail.
- I've been asked not to share the details.
- Resolves subjectivly based on whether it overall seems to have worked out.
- (Resolves N/A if it's not attempted.) I won't bet.
- Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deadline for Resolution: The market will now automatically resolve as NO at the end of 2026 unless BTE demonstrates something real.
Offene Märkte
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 351.426,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 351.357 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183.652,9 €
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will BTE's secret plan work??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 95% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will BTE's secret plan work? entschieden?
- Will BTE's secret plan work? soll am 2. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will BTE's secret plan work? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.