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Veraltet30. März 25, 05:27 UTC31. Dez. 34, 23:59 UTC
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Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI and the invasion of Taiwan occur within 12 months of one another?
Manifold MarketsWill a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketRegeln
"On June 30, 2024, a Tianlong-3 first stage detached from its stand during a static fire test due to a structural failure, resulting in an unintentional liftoff."
- Resolves YES if any space-capable non-ICBM rocket lifts off from the pad (or other infrastructure) under the power of its own engines for at least one whole second when it was not intended to (the vehicle must remain off the ground for ≥1s and at least one engine must remain operational for ≥1s).
- Resolves NO if this hasn't happened by EOY 2034 (UTC)
- Examples of situations that would count:
- Lifting off during a static fire such as in the Tianlong-3 incident
- Lift off during a launch countdown but distinctly prior to T-0 (for simplicity let's say at least ten seconds prior)
