Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 25.07.2026, 01:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Current Cosmic Ladder estimates are wrong 51.9%+2.2ptFührend unter 3 Optionen
Prognostiker
53
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Tagen
Veraltet3. März 24, 7:432. Jan. 30, 4:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Current Cosmic Ladder estimates are wrong52%
Volumentrend
$10524. Juli2T Daten25. Juli
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The Hubble tension or crisis in cosmology is the discrepancy in different methods of measuring the speed of the universe's expansion between methods using observations of the early universe and modeling, vs those using a "ladder" or different distance measurement techniques of stars.
- This market will resolve when there is a single, widely agreed upon estimate of Hubble's constant with tight confidence intervals (s.d. <1).
- Current best estimates:
- Cosmic ladder: SH0ES - 73.04 +- 1.04
- CMB: Planck - 67.66 +-0.42
- Wrong here means that the current best estimates using either method are 3 standard deviations or more away from the agreed estimate.