Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 56% (Stand: 7. August 2026).

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

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Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes (44.4%)

Entschieden: 06.08.2026, 03:14

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Nein 55.6%

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Fragetyp

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13. Okt. 22, 15:526. Aug. 26, 3:14

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Yes44.4%

No55.6%

Nein

55.6%

44.4%

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By "hallucinate random nonsense" I mean the thing where language models will occasionally just say totally ridiculous out of left field stuff, or blatantly be wrong about the current conversational context (e.g. tell you you said a thing you very definitely did not say).

Resolves YES if my subjective impression is that language models basically don't do this anymore, or if we end up getting a reasonable benchmark for this and very good performance on that benchmark.
Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicates the resolution is "pretty close" to being determined.
The key factor will be where the line is drawn between "out of left field stuff" and "normal amounts of factual incorrectness" when making the final subjective determination.