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  1. Prognosemärkte
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  3. 2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Manifold Markets

2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?

One-OffPolitikUS PoliticsWahl4Mon
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
Texas 63.5%
Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker

4

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Tagen

Veraltet
1. Juni 26, 8:484. Nov. 26, 23:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Texas64%

Regeln

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):

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Regeln

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):